Drafting a Quarterback Is Like Picking a Pony

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The 2018 NFL draft has come and gone. Franchises across the country hedged their bets, and placed ungodly amounts of money squarely in the pockets on this year’s batch of quarterbacks.

I imagine it’s kind of like going to Oaklawn, peering over all the stats, watching your horse prance into the paddocks—mane braided, saddle on—and then offering up a prayer and a lot of dough, all in hopes of winning big.

Due to deadlines, this column was submitted before the draft even began, but if I were one of the owners, especially one of the teams with the first five picks, I’d have many things to consider before I chose my next signal caller.

What makes a good quarterback?

That’s a good question, and just because a quarterback is drafted high in the first round does not mean he will become a franchise QB.

Case in point, Ryan Leaf.

Leaf was the second overall pick in the 1998 NFL draft (Peyton Manning was the first). In an episode of “NFL Top 10,” Leaf was listed as the “Number 1 Draft Bust” of all time. He earned this distinction after a four year NFL career riddled with on- and off-the-field problems. After football, Leaf struggled with substance abuse, resulting in an eventual stay in a state prison.

How does this happen?

We’re talking millions of dollars, hundreds—maybe even thousands—of man-hours devoted to scouring everything about these young QBs, all in an effort to try and predict if they’re really worth the money.

As I write this, I wonder where Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma’s Heisman-winning quarterback, went in the draft. He recently told “Sports Illustrated” he would not be satisfied being drafted any later than the fifth pick.

That sounds like something Ryan Leaf might have said back in ’98, or Johnny Manziel, the Texas A&M star, might still be saying—wherever he is these days.

But does that mean Baker will be a bust? Not necessarily. Tim Tebow wasn’t boastful. He didn’t taunt players or draw attention for his off-the-field antics, but he also didn’t pan out in the NFL either.

So how do you predict a quarterback’s success in the NFL? Surely the moneymen in one of the most lucrative industries in the world are playing off more than a hunch when they put their money down on these golden-armed studs.

Or maybe not.

As a former quarterback, there’s one thing I know for certain about this game—it’s unpredictable. Even the ball is wonky. Footballs aren’t round. They’re oblong, made of leather, and bound together with gnarly white laces.

When you drop a football, there’s no telling which way it’s going to bounce. And therein lies the problem with predicting a quarterback’s success. Sometimes the ball doesn’t bounce their way. In fact, there will soon be eleven of the world’s nastiest defenders coming at them on every play, doing their best to rip the ball straight from their hands.

So how do they survive? What makes the Peyton Mannings and Tom Bradys of the world?

Grit.

When the QB class of 2018 takes the field next fall, be sure to watch them in times of defeat. The beautiful thing about grit is it shines brightest when the chips are down, when things are at their worst.

In her book “Grit”, Angela Duckworth defines the word as, “perseverance and passion toward long-term goals.” In other words, the Mannings and Bradys are out there when nobody is watching, doing everything they can to get better. It’s that passion that Ms. Duckworth was talking about, a burning deep inside of them that cannot be doused.

There is no great predictor of grit, though. No single test the future quarterbacks of the NFL can take to ensure their longevity. Grit comes from the heart—the gut. You won’t find grit on any stat sheet. It’s not a height or weight, or even a matter of knowledge. But if the QB class of 2018 produces any true stars, I can promise you one thing—they’ll be gritty.

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This post was originally published on couriernews.com, and is republished here with the author’s permission.

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